UK TSL Risk Map: Roles at Risk After July 2026 MAC Review

Key Take aways for TSL roles

The MAC's final Stage 2 TSL report lands in July 2026 and the final list will be shorter than the 82 roles currently under review.
Two roles (vehicle body builders and vehicle paint technicians) already failed to progress through Stage 1 and face near-certain removal.
Roles without credible, government-aligned Jobs Plans face automatic rejection at Stage 2, regardless of shortage evidence.
Sectors such as construction and hospitality carry the highest exposure due to fragmented Jobs Plans and exploitation concerns.
Employers relying on interim TSL roles must have contingency workforce plans ready before 31 December 2026.

The July 2026 Deadline Most Employers Are Not Ready For

The scenario:

Your sponsored employee starts in September. Their role is on the Temporary Shortage List (TSL). Everything is fine until July 2026, when the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) publishes its final recommendations, and that role is gone from the list.

That scenario is not hypothetical. The MAC has been explicit, the final TSL will be shorter than the 82 occupations currently under Stage 2 review. Some roles will not survive. And when the interim list sunsets on 31 December 2026, employers who have not planned ahead will have no legal route to sponsor those positions.

This article maps the risk across TSL occupations using the MAC’s own Stage 2 criteria, known sector Jobs Plan status, and policy trajectory analysis so your team can plan around the outcome before it arrives.

How the TSL Review Works: The Three Stage 2 Tests

The MAC applies three tests to every occupation in the Stage 2 shortlist. Fail any one of them and the role does not make the final TSL.

Test 1: Demonstrable Long-Term Shortage
- The shortage must be proven with clear data.
- Evidence may include:
  - High vacancy rates
  - Long recruitment timelines
  - Retention and turnover data
- The MAC looks for shortages that are structural and persistent, not temporary or cyclical.
- Occupations where the domestic workforce could realistically meet demand within 3–5 years may be less likely to qualify.
Test 2: Appropriateness of Migration
- The MAC assesses whether international recruitment is the right solution.
- It considers whether shortages could instead be addressed through:
  - Higher wages
  - Increased training and skills investment
  - Automation and productivity improvements
- Sectors with a history of low pay for mid-skilled roles may face greater scrutiny.
Test 3: Credible Jobs Plan
- Each occupation must be part of a government- and industry-backed workforce strategy (Jobs Plan).
- A credible Jobs Plan should include:
  - Apprenticeship commitments
  - Upskilling and training programmes
  - Engagement with the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP)
  - Measurable domestic recruitment targets
  - A framework to manage migrant worker exploitation risks
- The MAC has made it clear that weak or missing Jobs Plans are likely to result in Stage 2 rejection, even when strong shortage evidence exists.

The Risk Map: Three Tiers of Exposure

Using the Stage 2 criteria, MAC Stage 1 analysis, and sector policy trajectory, we can group TSL occupations into three risk tiers.

Tier 1: Near-Certain Removal

Role	SOC Code	Risk Driver
Vehicle Body Builders and Repairers	5232	Did not progress to Stage 2. Currently on the interim Temporary Shortage List (TSL) with no pathway to permanent listing.
Vehicle Paint Technicians	5233	Did not progress to Stage 2. Currently on the interim Temporary Shortage List (TSL) with no pathway to permanent listing.

These two roles are the clearest case. The MAC excluded them from the 82-role Stage 2 shortlist at Stage 1. They remain on the interim TSL until 31 December 2026 but will not appear on any permanent list. If your company sponsors workers in these codes, your planning horizon is the end of this year.

Tier 2: High Risk : Weak Jobs Plan or Policy Misalignment

Sector / Role Type	Risk Factor	MAC Signal
Construction Trades (Non-Infrastructure)	High self-employment rate, fragmented sector representation, and exploitation risks highlighted by the MAC.	MAC suggested exploring alternative sponsorship models for construction; the standard sponsor licence route may not always be appropriate.
Hospitality and Food Service	Not aligned with Industrial Strategy priority sectors; historically lower pay levels and limited workforce planning evidence.	Hospitality is not among the MAC’s prioritised growth-driving sectors, resulting in a lower likelihood of long-term TSL support.
Social Care and Senior Care	Ineligible for TSL consideration; care worker occupations (SOC 6135/6136) were removed from new Skilled Worker applications from July 2025.	Explicitly excluded from TSL eligibility; existing ISL provisions remain available only for current holders until July 2028.
Roles with 18-Month Jobs Plan Flag	Sectors where the MAC may recommend a shorter initial listing period pending evidence of workforce strategy delivery.	An 18-month listing signals weaker justification and no guarantee of future extension or renewal.

In practice, the hospitality sector faces the hardest road. It was among the biggest users of the old Shortage Occupation List, but it does not map cleanly to the government’s Industrial Strategy sectors. Without that alignment, inclusion on a permanent TSL is structurally difficult regardless of how real the shortage is.

Tier 3: Stronger Chance of Survival

Sector / Role Type	Why More Stable
Advanced Manufacturing (Welders, Precision Engineers)	Core Industrial Strategy sector with government-backed Jobs Plans and well-documented labour shortages.
Clean Energy and Infrastructure Trades	Directly aligned with government growth priorities, supported by strong ministerial backing and clear shortage evidence.
Life Sciences Laboratory Technicians	Priority sector with strong alignment between industry and academic workforce plans and robust shortage data.
IT Support Technicians (Specific SOC Codes)	Supported by broad digital skills shortages and sector growth; some roles may transition to higher-skilled classifications over time.
Boat Builders and Marine Engineers	Industry bodies such as British Marine are actively engaged in evidence submissions, with shortages clearly documented.

Even within Tier 3, stability is conditional. The MAC will not rubber-stamp any role. Sectors with active trade body engagement, government-aligned Jobs Plans, and strong shortage data have the best odds but the July 2026 report may still downgrade some to an 18-month initial listing, with full three-year status conditional on delivery.

What the MAC’s Stage 2 Tests Mean for Employer Planning

The July 2026 report creates a hard planning cliff. The MAC expects its recommendations to be acted on before 31 December 2026, which means employers may have weeks not months, to respond once the final list is published.

Here is what your workforce and mobility team should be doing now:

Action	What to Do
Audit Your TSL Dependency	• Create a list of all sponsored employees in RQF 3–5 roles. • Match each role’s SOC code against the 82-role Stage 2 shortlist. • If a code is not on the shortlist, removal from the TSL at the end of 2026 is highly likely. • If it is on the shortlist, assess its risk level against the MAC’s Stage 2 criteria.
Engage Your Trade Body	• Trade bodies remain central to Jobs Plan development, even after the Stage 2 Call for Evidence closed. • Review whether your sector’s Jobs Plan is strong enough to support continued sponsorship access. • Work through trade associations to strengthen workforce planning, training commitments, and recruitment strategies. • Individual employers cannot directly influence the MAC assessment process.
Review RQF Reclassification Opportunities	• Assess whether TSL-dependent roles could be restructured to meet RQF Level 6 requirements. • Some occupations, such as Construction Project Managers (SOC 2455), have been recommended for reclassification to RQF 6. • Ensure job descriptions, responsibilities, and qualification requirements genuinely reflect degree-level work where appropriate.
Build Contingency Plans Now	• Identify alternative workforce strategies for roles at higher risk of TSL removal. • Consider domestic recruitment pipelines. • Expand apprenticeship and training programmes. • Upskill existing employees. • Evaluate higher-skilled immigration routes for internal transfers. • Early planning reduces disruption if final policy decisions restrict sponsorship options.

The Number in TSL : 82 to Fewer

The final list will be shorter than 82. It said so explicitly in its Stage 1 report. The only question is how much shorter.

Historically, MAC reviews that run a two-stage filter with quantitative and qualitative tests tend to reduce shortlists by 30–50%. That would put the final TSL somewhere between 40 and 60 occupations. Roles in Tier 2 sectors with fragmented Jobs Plans or no Industrial Strategy alignment will account for most of the attrition.

The honest assessment: if your sponsored workforce skews toward construction trades in non-infrastructure sectors, hospitality, or vehicle-related roles, you are in the highest-risk bracket. Start your contingency planning now, not in August.

If you want to understand how your specific sponsorship portfolio sits against the July 2026 risk map, speak with our UK immigration team. We work through the scenarios with you before the report lands, not after.

Disclaimer: Immigration rules change quite frequently; please verify with official sources or contact us for the latest info before making any decisions.